What Are Minnesota’s Odds of a White Christmas in 2024?

With Christmas coming up next week the question everyone is asking is are we going to have a white Christmas this year? We all dream of having fresh and fluffy snow on the ground for the holidays. But what are the odds of that actually happening?

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Historical Odds of a White Christmas in Minnesota

Minnesota always has one of the best chances of having a white Christmas. Not terribly surprising. But certain parts of the state have a better shot than others.

The Minnesota DNR says that, historically speaking, northern Minnesota always has the best chance of a white Christmas. No surprise there. The thing that did surprise me, though, is that southwest Minnesota has the worst chance at seeing snow for Christmas. I thought that it would be pretty equal across southern Minnesota but apparently not!

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If we look at the major cities in Minnesota, Duluth historically has a 95% chance of a white Christmas, the Twin Cities have a 75-80% chance, and Rochester has a 70-75% chance.

Here's the map that the Minnesota DNR put together of our historical odds of having snow on the ground for Christmas.

Unfortunately, the chance for snow on Christmas has continued to go down over the years. Sven Sundgaard with Bring Me the News writes that "climate change is a likely culprit as December is one of our fastest warming months".

I think all of Minnesota has seen some snow but none of it seems to be sticking around. After a day or so it's gone again. Are there any chances of having snow on the ground for Christmas?

2024 Odds of a White Christmas in Minnesota

The bad news is there is a much smaller chance of having a white Christmas since we're just over a week away. However, there's some snow in the forecast!

In Duluth, there's a slight chance for some snow today but nothing crazy. Then on Thursday, there's a 90% chance of 3-5 inches of snow! After that, there's nothing in the forecast before Christmas but the temperatures will stay low so the snow may actually stick around.

In the Twin Cities there's a chance for snow tomorrow but not much. Thursday is when the snow should hit with an 82% chance of 1-3 inches of snow. No snow after that before Christmas but it should stay cold.

And then in Rochester, there's a chance for a little snow tomorrow. Thursday, once again, there's a chance for snow, a 69% chance of 1-3 inches. And then, just like in Duluth and the Cities, it'll stay cool.

So as long as enough snow falls on Thursday across the state, we may actually still get a white Christmas this year. Fingers crossed!